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Past CMEs From 2016:

CME: 2016-11-05T04:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2016-11-09T05:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Filament Eruption off the northern Hemisphere giving a very wide-angle partial halo. Another CME came off the farside and eastern limb at a similar time. Evident in SOHO and STEREO imagery after 05/0200UTC.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-11-08T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -13.47 ---- 2016-11-05T17:52Z 83.60 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Karin Muglach (GSFC) Detail
2016-11-08T10:00Z -19.47 ---- 2016-11-06T00:30Z 76.97 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Barbara Thompson (GSFC) Detail
2016-11-08T00:00Z (-9.0h, +6.0h) -29.47 40.0 2016-11-06T01:00Z 76.47 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2016-11-08T19:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -10.47 75.0 2016-11-06T11:10Z 66.30 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-11-08T11:15Z -18.22 57.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.33333
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-11-08T13:00Z -16.47 57.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2016-10-20T14:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Source is a filament eruption around 13:00 visible in the NW of SDO 193 and 304. Very faint, barely visible in coronagraphs
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-10-23T23:00Z ---- ---- 2016-10-21T07:24Z 63.60 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-10-23T23:00Z ---- ---- --- --- ---- Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-10-23T23:00Z ---- ---- --- --- ---- Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2016-10-09T02:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2016-10-12T21:21Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Halo CME seen in C2 at 10-09T02:36Z and C3 at 10-09T06:30Z. Visible to the NW as seen by STA at 10-08T21:09Z. Source is unclear.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-10-13T16:00Z 18.65 ---- 2016-10-09T17:06Z 76.25 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-10-13T00:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) 2.65 40.0 2016-10-10T11:00Z 58.35 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2016-10-13T22:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 24.65 40.0 2016-10-10T13:53Z 55.47 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-10-14T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 26.65 ---- 2016-10-10T14:39Z 54.70 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-10-14T11:44Z 38.38 ---- 2016-10-12T03:43Z 17.63 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-10-12T04:39Z -16.70 0.0 2016-10-12T03:45Z 17.60 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-10-13T13:03Z 15.70 26.6667 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.33333
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-10-13T19:00Z 21.65 40.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2016-07-28T22:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2016-08-02T11:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The source of this CME is a filament eruption seen close to disk center in AIA 193/304 starting ~18:00 (with an activation/slow rise phase starting several hours earlier).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-08-02T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 0.62 33.0 2016-07-29T13:55Z 93.47 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-08-01T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -23.38 ---- 2016-07-29T16:53Z 90.50 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-08-02T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -11.38 60.0 2016-07-30T05:45Z 77.63 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2016-08-02T00:00Z -11.38 46.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 5.33333
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-08-02T00:00Z -11.38 46.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2016-07-23T05:24:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: large spray of cooler material ejected from the active region with this CME, associated with double peaked flare.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-07-25T21:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 15.0 2016-07-24T06:58Z 38.03 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-07-25T21:00Z ---- 15.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-07-25T21:00Z ---- 15.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2016-07-20T23:12:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-07-23T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2016-07-22T07:20Z 22.67 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-07-23T06:00Z ---- 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-07-23T06:00Z ---- 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2016-07-20T02:00:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-07-23T12:00Z ---- ---- 2016-07-21T14:00Z 46.00 Dst min. in nT: -57
Dst min. time: 2016-07-24T01:00Z
Anemomilos WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) Detail
2016-07-23T12:00Z ---- ---- --- --- ---- Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-07-23T12:00Z ---- ---- --- --- ---- Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2016-07-17T12:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2016-07-19T23:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Slow dimming and field line evolution visible in AIA images from 06:30-08:30. Note: the arrival listed here may not be due to this CME, but no other ICME could be found.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-07-20T22:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) 22.92 50.0 2016-07-17T17:00Z 54.08 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2016-07-20T21:00Z 21.92 ---- 2016-07-17T17:22Z 53.72 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-07-22T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 48.92 50.0 2016-07-18T12:25Z 34.67 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-07-21T00:04Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 24.98 ---- 2016-07-18T16:14Z 30.85 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) Detail
2016-07-20T23:32Z (-9.77h, +11.12h) 24.45 91.0 2016-07-18T21:13Z 25.87 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Karin Muglach (GSFC) Detail
2016-07-20T04:39Z 5.57 100.0 2016-07-19T06:44Z 16.35 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-07-21T06:42Z 31.62 ---- 2016-07-19T06:49Z 16.27 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-07-21T00:51Z 25.77 72.75 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.75 - 5.25
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-07-20T23:32Z 24.45 70.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.5
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2016-06-30T01:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME associated with activity seen in an AR located at a longitude/latitude of about 165/10 degrees and visible in STA EUVI images.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-07-16T04:00Z ---- ---- 2016-07-15T02:00Z 26.00 Dst min. in nT: -95
Dst min. time: 2016-07-16T13:00Z
Anemomilos WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) Detail
2016-07-16T04:00Z ---- ---- --- --- ---- Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-07-16T04:00Z ---- ---- --- --- ---- Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2016-05-15T15:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-05-18T00:30Z (-5.0h, +5.0h) ---- 80.0 2016-05-17T07:00Z 17.50 ---- DBM + ESWF Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) Detail
2016-05-18T11:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 30.0 2016-05-17T10:16Z 25.23 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
 Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-05-18T08:07Z ---- 100.0 2016-05-18T07:58Z 0.15 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-05-19T02:22Z ---- ---- 2016-05-18T08:03Z 18.32 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-05-18T11:37Z ---- 70.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-05-18T09:48Z ---- 80.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2016-05-02T08:42:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2016-05-06T15:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The CME may have arrived on 2016-05-06T15:48Z. ACE magnetic field data shows a disturbance in form of a flux rope, plus density increased while the temperature decreased. Time of arrival is very rough.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-05-06T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -5.80 ---- 2016-05-02T16:01Z 95.78 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) Detail
2016-05-06T12:00Z -3.80 10.0 2016-05-03T02:52Z 84.93 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2016-05-05T05:07Z -34.68 0.0 2016-05-04T22:55Z 40.88 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-05-06T17:54Z 2.10 ---- 2016-05-04T22:58Z 40.83 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-05-06T05:15Z -10.55 5.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-05-06T11:00Z -4.80 5.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2016-04-10T11:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2016-04-14T06:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: CME associated with large filament eruption situated close to N18E29 starting around 10UTC.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-04-14T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -6.83 ---- 2016-04-11T00:54Z 77.93 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) Detail
2016-04-13T14:00Z -16.83 ---- 2016-04-11T05:07Z 73.72 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-04-13T18:00Z (-12.0h, +6.0h) -12.83 30.0 2016-04-11T05:45Z 73.08 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2016-04-14T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 5.17 ---- 2016-04-11T12:30Z 66.33 ---- Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-04-13T04:51Z -25.98 100.0 2016-04-12T20:30Z 34.33 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-04-13T12:44Z -18.10 ---- 2016-04-12T20:33Z 34.28 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-04-13T18:15Z -12.58 65.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.5
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-04-13T16:00Z -14.83 65.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.5
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2016-04-06T14:00:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-04-09T14:00Z ---- 10.0 2016-04-07T15:23Z 46.62 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2016-04-09T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2016-04-08T02:57Z 39.05 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Karin Muglach (GSFC) Detail
2016-04-09T15:27Z ---- ---- 2016-04-08T21:55Z 17.53 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-04-09T20:02Z ---- 0.0 2016-04-08T21:59Z 22.05 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-04-09T16:52Z ---- 5.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-04-09T16:43Z ---- 5.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2016-03-23T05:00:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME arrival unclear. Could be at 2016-03-26T23:40Z
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-03-26T04:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2016-03-23T22:52Z 53.13 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-03-26T22:00Z (-4.0h, +12.0h) ---- 40.0 2016-03-24T02:10Z 67.83 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2016-03-25T22:50Z ---- 100.0 2016-03-25T21:57Z 0.88 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-03-26T19:58Z ---- ---- 2016-03-25T22:00Z 21.97 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-03-26T11:12Z ---- 70.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-03-26T11:59Z ---- 70.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2016-03-08T20:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2016-03-11T04:21Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The origin of this arrival is unclear. It could also be from the signature in 193Å near disk center at 2016-03-08T03:50Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-03-12T20:00Z 39.65 20.0 2016-03-09T17:02Z 35.32 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2016-03-13T04:45Z 48.40 ---- 2016-03-12T11:15Z -30.90 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-03-12T13:24Z 33.05 0.0 2016-03-12T11:16Z -30.92 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-03-12T20:43Z 40.37 10.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-03-12T20:00Z 39.65 10.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2016-02-11T21:28:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2016-02-15T05:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: C8.9 flare originating from AR 12496/97 complex (with peak at 21:03), eruption from near the polarity inversion line between the 2 ARs, wave going to the north and west, AIA 304 shows dark absorption material being ejected, nice post-eruptive loops in AIA 193, CME is partial halo seen in LASCO and STA.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-02-15T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -2.25 70.0 2016-02-11T23:53Z 77.37 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
 Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-02-15T06:14Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 0.98 ---- 2016-02-12T02:27Z 74.80 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Karin Muglach (GSFC) Detail
2016-02-15T05:51Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 0.60 ---- 2016-02-12T02:52Z 74.38 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Ethan Robinett (CUA) Detail
2016-02-15T03:00Z -2.25 ---- 2016-02-12T12:20Z 64.92 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2016-02-15T01:00Z -4.25 ---- 2016-02-12T17:19Z 59.93 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-02-15T10:04Z 4.82 ---- 2016-02-12T18:33Z 58.70 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-02-14T18:37Z -10.63 100.0 2016-02-12T18:39Z 58.60 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-02-15T05:51Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 0.60 81.0 2016-02-17T02:22Z -45.12 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Ethan Robinett (CUA) Detail
2016-02-15T03:42Z -1.55 83.6667 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.2 - 5.33333
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-02-15T04:25Z -0.83 81.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2016-02-05T21:30:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2016-02-11T15:54Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-02-09T07:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -56.90 40.0 2016-02-06T12:17Z 123.62 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-02-08T21:00Z -66.90 50.0 2016-02-06T16:00Z 119.90 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2016-02-09T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -45.90 ---- 2016-02-06T16:19Z 119.58 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-02-08T23:03Z -64.85 4.0 2016-02-07T03:11Z 108.72 ---- Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-02-08T21:11Z -66.72 0.0 2016-02-07T23:30Z 88.40 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-02-09T03:38Z -60.27 23.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 6.5
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-02-08T23:03Z -64.85 22.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 6.5
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2016-01-15T00:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2016-01-18T21:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: This CME is associated with a filament eruption to the SW starting around 21:45Z. CME is a partial halo, very faint.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-01-18T12:38Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -8.37 ---- 2016-01-15T17:09Z 75.85 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) Detail
2016-01-18T07:54Z (-5.5h, +4.3h) -13.10 71.0 2016-01-15T21:37Z 71.38 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-01-19T09:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 12.00 35.0 2016-01-16T12:44Z 56.27 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-01-19T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 15.00 30.0 2016-01-16T18:35Z 50.42 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2016-01-18T00:40Z -20.33 0.0 2016-01-17T20:09Z 24.85 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-01-18T18:02Z -2.97 34.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.75
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-01-18T12:38Z -8.37 32.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2016-01-06T12:00:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-01-10T23:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2016-01-07T09:25Z 86.08 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-01-09T21:44Z ---- 0.0 2016-01-09T19:59Z 1.75 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-01-10T10:37Z ---- 10.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-01-10T10:37Z ---- 10.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2016-01-02T01:50:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time
Difference (hrs)
Confidence (%)
Submitted On
Lead Time (hrs)
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s)
Method
Submitted By
2016-01-03T15:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 40.0 2016-01-02T11:00Z 28.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2016-01-03T12:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) ---- 40.0 2016-01-02T18:35Z 17.42 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2016-01-04T12:46Z ---- 0.0 2016-01-04T11:03Z 1.72 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2016-01-03T21:15Z ---- 26.6667 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 6.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2016-01-03T15:00Z ---- 40.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 6.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

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